A Technical Analysis of Gold’s Secular Uptrend

Introduction:

Building upon the previous three studies on gold, we conclude with a technical analysis of gold’s secular bull market trend since 2001. We will use time series analysis to determine gold’s secular trend growth rate, and historical volatility to set the trend boundaries. The trend and its historical boundaries will offer a reference point for identifying where we are today – a first step in any decision making process.

Technical analysis, with its proclivity to market timing, is a critical part of the investment decision process regardless of methodology or time horizon. I hope that this article will make it increasingly obvious how closely related technical analysis is to fundamental analysis and how the two disciplines are indeed inseparable.
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Relationship Between Gold, Inflation, and Equities II

Introduction:

In part-1 of this study, we considered the question of whether monthly returns of gold were correlated with those of inflation or equities in the United States of America. We analyzed three decades of monthly returns using two statistical techniques, correlation and regression analysis. Were you surprised by the results?

Here in part-2 we will investigate whether there has been a relationship between the long term price trends of gold, inflation, and equities. But before we do, let us first clearly distinguish between “correlation of returns” and “price trends“.

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Relationship Between Gold, Inflation, and Equities

Introduction:

No doubt you have often heard it stated as a matter of fact that gold is a hedge against inflation or, what may at first glance seem synonymous, that gold is correlated with inflation. Have you wondered to what degree this may be true, if it is true at all? Perhaps curiosity about gold has been piqued in light of recent record gold prices coupled with economic conditions in general.

In this first of two articles we will assemble and analyze data describing the statistical correlation between the monthly returns of gold, inflation, and equities. And in part-2 of this study we will compare the long term price trends of gold, inflation, and equities. Read more »

Chart Patterns: Double-Top

Introduction: 

The principles discussed in last month’s articles on chart patterns, the overview and the head and shoulders, underlie reversal chart patterns in general. They apply to this article’s topic as well: the double-top reversal pattern. 

Perhaps the most common mistake when identifying patterns is neglecting to consider the preceding trend. This is akin to neglecting the context. To emphasize an important point made in the overview article: 

“Chart patterns are divided into two main groups: reversal patterns which occur at the end of a trend, or continuation patterns which reside within the trend. It logically follows then that a prerequisite to any chart pattern is the existence of a prior trend.” 

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Chart Patterns: Head and Shoulders

Introduction:    

We discussed important concepts common to chart patterns in a previous article. Having laid the foundation, we now focus on a very popular reversal pattern called the “Head and Shoulders”. Remember that reversal patterns are found at the end of a major trend, while continuation patterns form within a trend. Read more »

Chart Patterns: An Overview

Introduction:

Consider any field of study, and it soon becomes apparent that topics can be categorized in a nested fashion, much like a set of wooden Russian dolls. In the field of technical analysis, chart patterns are one of the bigger dolls inside of the big doll.

Having a detailed understanding of chart patterns will dramatically improve your technical analysis skill regardless of your trading time frame. The interpretation of shorter term price movement will become clearer when taken in light of the larger chart pattern.

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Merging Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Merging fundamental and technical analysis is by no means a new concept. But it is an important one to which I have devoted some study. Though the underlying assumptions may seem contradictory, I believe these two disciplines are complimentary. Learning to use both methods together has added more depth and perspective to my understanding of the financial markets.

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